Boris Johnson has warned that the new Indian variant of coronavirus could cause “significant disruption” to the easing of lockdown and said that the nation faces “hard choices”.
The prime minister said he wanted to “level with” the public about the threat posed by the variant, which he said could delay plans to end restrictions by June 21.
He announced that for the over 50s and the most vulnerable, the gap between first and second vaccinations would be reduced from 12 weeks to eight weeks. He also said the army would be deployed in Blackburn and Bolton to carry out mass testing and that the vaccination of vulnerable groups would be “accelerated” in those areas.
Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said the Sage group of scientific advisers had concluded that the new Indian variant is more transmissible than the Kent one, the dominant strain at present. He said there was no evidence that the new variant is resistant to vaccines, adding that over time he expected it to become the dominant strain in the UK.
Johnson said that the next stage of easing lockdown restrictions, allowing people to meet indoors and hug, would go ahead as planned on Monday. “I’m told that if it’s only marginally more transmissible we could continue more or less as planned, but if the variant is significantly more transmissible we’re going to face some hard choices.
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“I do not believe that we need on present evidence to delay the roadmap, and we will proceed with our plan to move to step three in England from Monday, but I have to level with you this new variant could pose a serious disruption to our progress and could make it more difficult to move to step four in June.”
He urged people to “do your bit” and be cautious. “I urge everyone to exercise the greatest caution because the choices we make in the coming days will have a material effect on the road ahead.”
People living in Blackburn and Bolton will be offered free tests twice a week. “There is now a greater risk from this new variant so I urge you to be extra cautious, our best chance of suppressing this variant is to clamp down on it where it is and we’ll be throwing everything we can at this task.”
Johnson was pressed on why he failed to put India on the red list banning international travel sooner. “India was not identified as having a variant of concern so that was the reason for that decision,” he said.
He urged people to be careful when they saw loved ones, particularly if they had not had both doses of their vaccines. “I want us to trust people to be responsible, and to do the right thing. That’s the way to live with this virus while protecting the NHS and restoring our freedoms. It’s very clear now we’re going to have to live with this new variant of the virus for some time so let’s work together, and let’s exercise caution and common sense.”
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He did not rule out going further, with localised lockdowns said to be under consideration.
Today Nadhim Zahawi warned that the final lockdown restrictions might not be eased next month if the spread of the Indian variant drove up infection rates.
The vaccines minister said it would be “a problem” if the government’s four tests for coming out of lockdown were not met — two of which concern the infection rate and the spread of variants.
Robert Dingwall, who sits on the government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), has urged it to “hold its nerve”.
Speaking in a personal capacity, he told The Daily Telegraph that ministers should not allow themselves “to be pushed to measures that are unnecessary, demoralising and won’t work. The evidence just isn’t there yet.”
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Four people in the UK with the Indian variant died between May 5-12 — the first known domestic deaths involving the strain. There is no evidence that the variant is any more deadly than others in circulation in Britain.
Zahawi told LBC that there was a possibility that the June 21 reopening could be delayed. “The way we don’t have to do that is by everybody doing their bit, by taking the two tests a week, doing your PCR test in those areas, and to isolate, isolate, isolate. We have got to break the cycle of infection.”
David Greenhalgh, the Conservative leader of Bolton council, suggested that surge vaccinations and testing could soon be rolled out in the town. He told BBC’s World At One that he recently had a meeting with the local authority, health partners and the government, adding “certainly all the soundings are that they are looking to progress that as soon as possible”.
“The vast majority of our cases are in their teens, 20s and 30s at the moment, and if we can get vaccinations to certainly 16+ licenced by the Pfizer vaccine then it will make a total transformation of the transmission as it moves forward.”
Indoor mixing will go ahead as planned on Monday despite calls yesterday from scientists and Dominic Cummings for it to be postponed. Modelling for Sage has concluded that if the variant is much more than 30 per cent more transmissible than the Kent strain it would be a big risk not to delay the final easing of restrictions next month.
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The Welsh government has “paused” plans to allow smaller events to reopen, as well as relaxing rules on people meeting. “We had thought of moving ahead with the reopening of smaller events, we’ll pause that for a moment,” Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, told Sky News today.
“We were thinking of liberalising the rules in the way in which people can meet together, not just in their extended household but beyond that, we’ll pause that for the moment ... until we’re a bit clearer on that, I think it is sensible to take a precautionary approach.”
Public Health England said yesterday that 1,313 cases of the B.1.617.2 variant had been identified, up from 520 last week. More than half are in London and the northwest.
It is one of three strains imported from India first identified in Britain in late April and has been deemed a “variant of concern” because of how fast it spreads. Scientists do not believe the variant is likely to blunt the effectiveness of vaccines but have concluded it could well be more transmissible than the Kent variant now dominant in Britain.
However, scientists are attempting to balance efforts to protect the vulnerable against the extra protection thought to be gained by delaying second doses by up to 12 weeks. Government science advisers urged Europe to take note of the UK’s success in leaving a 12-week gap between doses of the Pfizer vaccine after studies showed that it boosted antibody responses and was likely to have saved lives.
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Research released today shows that the antibody response in people aged over 80 was more than three times greater in those who had the second dose after 12 weeks, compared with those who had it after three weeks as recommended by Pfizer.
A separate modelling study from US researchers, published in the BMJ, estimated that delaying the second dose of an effective vaccine could reduce overall deaths from Covid by as much as 20 per cent. Effectiveness of the AstraZeneca jab has also been shown to be better after a longer gap.